April 23, 2024
U.S. maple syrup production has seen significant growth over the past decade, led by Vermont, New York and Maine. However, tap expansions may be starting to level off. What does this mean for the 2024 season?
Farm Credit East recently hosted a webinar with University of Vermont’s Mark Cannella who provided a glimpse into statistics and trends in North American maple syrup production and a look into the Maple syrup and sugar industry in 2024. Following are the key takeaways from this webinar.
Production
Canada produces over 90% of the global maple syrup crop, with Quebec accounting for over 90% of Canada's production. Quebec has announced significant new tap allocations to increase future production capacity as they work to rebuild low inventory levels. Quebec also aims to increase production to maintain market share as they expand global marketing efforts.
Market Outlook
Market growth has slowed from prior double-digit rates but is still increasing, challenged by inflation impacts on consumer demand. Nominal bulk syrup prices have not kept up with inflation, creating a cost-price squeeze for producers with real prices down 50% or more since 2008. Lack of retail price increases is seen as a growth opportunity but also risks excluding some buyers.
For 2024, projected U.S. bulk prices range from $209 to $242 per gallon based on converting announced Quebec prices at $3.29/lb for golden syrup. Organic premiums are projected to be 10-20% above conventional prices.
As operations look to benchmark in the year ahead, $55 per tap is a good benchmark for total intermediate investment before land costs based on averages. Retail enterprises may see $85-95 per gallon equivalent in revenue, while bulk sales at $220/lb are more common.
Climate Change and Sustainability
The industry is behind others on sustainability marketing claims but recognizes the need for rigorous lifecycle analysis and exploring lower-impact packaging. There are efforts to discuss climate change impacts in terms of yield resilience. Best management practices like modern tubing can enhance yields and provide climate adaptation benefits.
Labor and New Entrants
An aging population of current owners highlights the need for succession/transfer planning. Larger operations face growing labor constraints in rural areas as they expand beyond family labor. Sap-only enterprises lower the capital barrier and create an entry point for the next generation of operators.
Industry Strategy
As we look to the future, research is underway on consumer demand, policy options like collective marketing, and sustainability metrics. There are opportunities and interest in more supply management coordination, though no immediate plans.
To dive deeper into the above topics, review the 60-minute webinar recording along with the presenters’ PowerPoint slides, or read Cannella’s 2024 Maple Industry Outlook.
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