December 3, 2024

Maple Industry Outlook 2025

Volume 18, Issue 12
December 2024

U.S. Maple Outlook

Contributed by Mark Cannella, Extension Associate Professor, University of Vermont

Maple syrup production was strong in both Canada and the United States in 2024. Average yield across the entire U.S. was 0.342 gallons per tap in 2024, which is the second highest yield recorded in the past 25 years. Compared to the national yield of 0.208 gallons per tap in 2002, producer yields increased 64% in just over 20 years.

US Maple Taps and Syrup Production chart of gallons by year

The large crop, however, generates a mixed response depending on one’s role in the supply chain and particular business position. Producers are pleased with a large quantity of syrup but are consistently concerned that a large supply can have a chilling effect on prices. Maple producers who have differentiated their product through branding and sales to direct consumer or wholesale market channels will be pleased to tally up total calendar year gross sales at the close of 2024. The irony for the U.S. maple industry, however, is that the thousands of smaller scale maple producers across the U.S. contribute a relatively small percentage of the national crop. A 2019 survey of maple producers found that over 80% of the responding maple businesses harvested sap from less than 5,000 trees, but they only contributed to19% of the total crop produced. A smaller group who comprise the remaining 20% of active maple businesses and have over 5,000 taps per business are responsible for about 80% of the annual crop.¹

While some higher tap count maple companies do manage their own branding and product marketing, many of the larger scale producers are selling syrup to bulk packers as price takers in a very competitive marketplace. Bulk producers who feared 2024 price reductions have been relieved that 2024 prices have remained relatively stable considering the large crop.

At the North American Maple Syrup Council Annual Conference (Portland Maine, October 2024), representatives from Quebec reported that the strategic reserve is still at relatively low levels. The inventory will end the year at roughly 40 million pounds compared to the target of 100-125 million pounds. The reserve was drained to its lowest levels just prior to the 2022 harvest and the slow rebuild of the inventory is a positive indicator that markets are keeping up with the ever-expanding production of syrup. It’s also clear that the presence of the inventory serves a key role in absorbing surplus supply and moderating the flow of syrup into the marketplace. Industry leaders are observing that expansion and investments in 2024 were not as strong as in past years. Increased cost of borrowing and generally level pricing in the U.S. appear to be reducing the incentives to increase production capacity right now.

Late in 2024, the financial markets show a weakening of the Canadian Loonie as it drops close to the lowest level in four years compared to the U.S. dollar. With this strong U.S. dollar, there will be an incentive for the large syrup retailers to purchase imported syrup from Canada, effectively getting more for their dollar. Excessive price pressure is anticipated to impact operational margins for bulk packers and sellers of U.S. syrup. U.S. producers should be wary of the compounding pressures facing these essential members of their supply chain. If this trend continues under an average crop forecast for 2025, it is likely to result in flat to declining U.S. bulk prices for the spring 2025 crop.

Strategic Outlook

The International Maple Syrup Institute (IMSI) is a membership organization composed of industry members in Canada and the U.S. who advance new ideas and advocate for the maple industry in government, trade and environmental affairs. The IMSI has formed several special-order committees who are leading initiatives to position the industry for continued success into the future. A look at these working groups highlights the important strategic issues shaping the next decade for U.S. maple.

U.S. Maple Market Development Committee: The committee is investigating different alternatives that enable producers to take collective action to establish a generic promotion program and exploring if U.S. producers would make annual financial contributions to such a program. From 2021-2024 the group spoke with representatives of other U.S. agricultural industries who have established promotion boards, check-off programs and other frameworks that unite members around market development initiatives and research. The committee has highlighted programs like the Popcorn Promotion and Research Board, Hazelnut Market Order, various private cooperatives, The Real Christmas Tree Board, and the National Honey Board that are either similar in size or scope and offer a model for pure maple syrup promotion. This committee and collaborating researchers at the University of Vermont will engage with producers through workshops, focus groups and a survey in 2025 to understand if maple producers would support a collective action approach to promotion and education.

Standard of Identity Committee: This group is engaged in a long process to modernize the Canadian and U.S. Standard of Identities (SOI) and register maple syrup with CODEX (a set of internationally accepted standards and guidelines protecting human health and governing fair food trade). An updated SOI will help all producers and sellers by preventing counterfeit, artificial or adulterated products that falsely claim to be real maple syrup. There are currently inconsistencies between the SOIs for maple syrup in individual states and provinces. The existing standards are out of date and do not accurately represent modern maple production. Current standards still include allowable thresholds for salt or chemical preservatives no longer in utilization today. A new version of the SOI would clarify the definition for processing agents like defoamer and also clarify requirements for the heat treatment process of concentrating sap to syrup.

This committee’s objective is to establish a single uniform standard emphasizing the purity of maple syrup and to petition the governments of the United States and Canada to promote adoption of this harmonized standard by the CODEX Alimentarius Commission.

Industry Statistics Committee: This group worked directly with the United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) to simplify and shorten the USDA Maple Crop Annual survey. Industry leaders believe the published statistics are underreported by at least 25% and that a poor response rate resulted from the survey being too long.

The new survey format highlights emerging trends in the industry with new questions about certified organic syrup totals and the amount of sap sold by sap-only business owners. With better baseline measurements, the industry can now watch how these trends develop over the next several years.

Isopropyl Alcohol Task Force: This working group is trying to get isopropyl alcohol (IA) approved for use to sanitize tubing in the U.S. IA is legal and currently allowed for use in maple sap collection systems in Canada. The IMSI believes that approved status in the U.S. will result in higher quality syrup yields and prolonged use of the tubing systems that will reduce waste. Over the past year, there has been progress made in identifying potential IA manufacturers that would be willing to take the necessary step to pursue the antimicrobial pesticide registration process within the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA).

Environment & Sustainable Development Committee: This group studies environmental issues, programs and legislation to inform the board and members on the path to sustainability. The IMSI has taken an earnest stance on global climate change and the role the maple industry seeks to have as part of the solution. In March 2024, outgoing Executive Director Jean Lamontagne formalized a Message from the Executive Director on “Mitigating and Adapting to Climate Change.” Here is an excerpt from that letter:

“Our industry needs to adapt to meet the challenges of a new world where renewable energy replaces fossil fuels for most of our energy needs. There is a clear consensus that a global reduction in CO2 emissions is necessary to avoid serious climate catastrophes that would likely cause great pain and suffering … Our industry can and should play an active role in building a more sustainable future for people, the planet, and our business. This means lowering the carbon footprint of the full product cycle of our maple syrup and maple products thus making our industry demonstrably more sustainable and eco-friendlier. In our opinion, this implies studying and understanding our current ecological and carbon footprint to then taking action to reduce both.”

This letter accepts these challenges, embraces the maple industry’s contribution to core tenants of sustainability and identifies research priorities needed to inform new solutions shaping the future.

¹Cannella, M., Lindgren, C. and Isselhardt, M. (2022). Northeastern United States Maple Syrup Production and Economics: A 2019 Survey of Producers". UVM Extension Faculty Publications. 30. https://scholarworks.uvm.edu/extfac/30

Editor: Chris Laughton
Contributors: Mark Cannella, Extension Associate Professor, University of Vermont

Mark Cannella is an Associate Professor and Farm Business Management Specialist with the University of Vermont Extension. He currently directs UVM Extension Agricultural Business programs with a focus on the management and delivery of farm and forest business planning programs, financial analysis and applied business research. Mark works directly on maple economics projects throughout the Northeastern United States and leads a national maple business education initiative. He works at the intersection of working lands business viability and stakeholder issues, developing research or training programs to support sustainable outcomes.

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2025 Maple Industry Outlook Webinar

On Tuesday, January 14, 2025, at 12:00 PM EST join Farm Credit East and Mark Cannella of the University of Vermont for a look at the Maple syrup and sugar industry in 2025.

Tags: outlook, economy, maple syrup production