2025 Potato Industry Outlook

The potato industry is facing a dynamic year ahead, with significant changes in production and market trends. The 2024 North American potato crop has seen a slight decrease in production, while European production has increased, impacting the global market dynamics. Read on for an in-depth analysis of the current state of the potato industry, including crop overviews, sector updates and 2025 market outlooks.

2024 North American Crop Overview

The 2024 North American potato crop is estimated to have produced 547.21MM cwt, which is a decrease of 19.51MM cwt from 2023 or 3.4%. U.S. potato production decreased by nearly 20MM cwt or 4.5%, while Canadian production increased by less than 400k cwt or 0.3%. Average yields for 2024 are estimated to be down slightly from the 2023 crop by 5 cwt per acre at 410 cwt per acre.

Overall, supplies of tablestock potatoes are expected to be down slightly from last year, while supplies of processing potatoes appear to generally be in balance with contract levels across the country, with only minor variations between growing areas.  Chipstock supplies appear to be plentiful nationally, with very little demand for open-market chip potatoes. Presently, nearly all chip potatoes are moving under contract. Seed potato supplies are also down on a national basis, although it is expected that there will be sufficient supplies to plant the 2025 potato crop. 

2024 European Crop Overview

The major European potato producing countries of Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium and Poland are estimated to have produced 833.5MM cwt of potatoes from the 2024 crop. This is an increase of just over 30MM cwt from 2023 and nearly 56 MM cwt more than the 2022 crop. These five areas grew a combined 2.4MM acres of potatoes, which is an increase of 6.9%.

European crop production is important as they are the major competitor(s) to the U.S. and Canada in the global french fry trade. The global french fry trade continues to increase, and the reduced European production the last two years has meant that U.S. and Canadian fry plants have been able to increase their share of the total trade. With increased production in Europe, that situation is likely to be more limited throughout the 2024/2025 marketing season. However, the continued increase in the overall global french fry trade likely means there should be enough raw product to supply the overall demand better than it has the last two years. 

Potato Industry Sector Updates 

Chipstock

Nationally, the 2024 chipstock crop produced adequate supplies to the point that the majority of chip companies are running solely on contracted production. There is very limited demand for open chipstock presently. Both Michigan and Maine produced larger chipstock crops than the previous year, which helped to partially offset reduced production from Wisconsin.

Storage conditions for the inventory in Michigan and Maine are reported to be good, given more favorable harvest conditions. The Wisconsin inventory has some level of storage concerns which could further reduce supplies in that area.

Overall, chip potato movement has been lagging behind last year’s pace by approximately 7%. In Canada, chipstock production was also up overall with the expectation that there are adequate supplies of chipping potatoes to supply local markets. 

Processing/French Fries and Processed Potatoes

Overall, production of fry quality potatoes is lower from the 2024 crop than it was for the 2023/2024 processing season, although it is felt that supplies are adequate to meet the needs of french fry processors. The past two years have seen a reversal of the raw product supply shortfall that occurred during the 2021 and 2022 crop seasons.

North American fryers were able to increase their share of the global fry export business during the 2023/2024 processing season due to adequate supplies and a reduced crop in the major french fry producing areas of Europe. Their share increased from 21.2% to 23.4%.  Given there is reduced North American raw product supply in 2024 and a European larger crop, it is likely that North American fry companies will see their share of the trade decrease from the previous year.

Despite this, the global french fry trade continues to grow. Between 2023 and 2024, the third quarter global trade of frozen potato products increased by nearly 28 MM pounds or 1.2%. The United Kingdom and Japan continue to be the major importers of frozen potato products worldwide. The two countries account for approximately 32% of third quarter sales. Mexico, Brazil and Saudi Arabia round out the list of the top importers of frozen potato products. 

Seed

Nationally, seed production was down for the 2024 crop year. On a state-by-state basis, seed certifications have been mixed, with some states showing increased seed acreage, while other states had reduced seed acreage. Overall, it appears seed quality is good, although overall supplies will be down going into the 2025 crop season. Despite the reduction in seed supplies, it appears that supplies will be adequate to plant the 2025 potato crop across the U.S and Canada.   

Tablestock

Despite an overall reduction in potato supplies from the previous year, open market tablestock prices have generally been lower than the previous year for much of the shipping season to date. Prices have recently stabilized after being well below year earlier levels immediately after harvest. Depending on the shipping area, prices as of 1/23/2025 are a mixed bag — ranging from slightly below to slightly above year earlier levels depending on the variety and the type of package they are shipped in.

2025 Outlook

North American growers are just starting to make planting decisions for the 2025 potato crop. In most years following an overall reduction in total production, growers have typically increased total acres planted by anywhere from just under 1% to as much as 5%. These acreage increases have typically led to reduced open market prices in the following year, but not always. The resulting change in open market prices due to acreage increases has been anywhere from a nearly 6% increase in prices to a 67% reduction in prices. 

The 2024/2025 marketing season is currently a bit different than most previous occasions of year-over-year production decreases. In most years when production has decreased from the prior year, markets have responded with improved open market prices. That is not exactly the case this year, as open market prices have so far generally been below year earlier levels.

Other factors at play include current processing contract negotiations. Processing contracts are widely expected to see both a reduction in price and in contract volumes. Should this occur and acreage cuts not materialize in the processing sector, this could lead to a further increase in open market supplies of potatoes, thereby likely reducing open market prices further.

Additional uncertainty surrounds fertilizer pricing for the 2025 crop year. Many suppliers are wary of making price commitments for fertilizer supplies to growers due to the current uncertainty involving tariffs and other trade disruptions. China is the world’s largest producer of Nitrogen fertilizer, followed by the U.S., Russia and Canada.  China is also the largest producer of phosphate fertilizer, by far, with Russia being the fourth largest. China, Russia and Canada are also the top three potash producing countries.

Presently, Nitrogen prices have decreased by 3-7% from the previous year, while Potassium/Potash prices have seen an increase of 1-2%. Phosphate pricing is also down by as much as 13% year over year. With fertilizer typically accounting for approximately 20% of the input costs of a potato crop, it could be difficult for growers to agree to contract pricing until they have a better indication of their actual cost of fertilizer.  

Editor: Chris Laughton
Contributors: Ghent Holdsworth

View previous 2025 Insights and Perspectives articles

Farm Credit East Disclaimer: The information provided in this communication/newsletter is not intended to be investment, tax, or legal advice and should not be relied upon by recipients for such purposes. Farm Credit East does not make any representation or warranty regarding the content, and disclaims any responsibility for the information, materials, third-party opinions, and data included in this report. In no event will Farm Credit East be liable for any decision made or actions taken by any person or persons relying on the information contained in this report.

2025 Potato Industry Outlook Webinar

On Thursday, February 20, 2025, at 12:00 PM EST Join Farm Credit East Senior Loan Officer, Ghent Holdsworth, as he covers what's ahead for the potato industry in 2025.