Dairy Industry Snapshot

The national milk cow herd came in slightly larger than last year’s August numbers. The national milk cow herd was at 9.520 million head, above the August 2024 figure of 9.344 million head. Milk per cow was up slightly from the prior year, and overall milk production was up 3.2% from August 2024.
New York saw an increase in cow numbers from this time last year (+10,000 head to 640,000 head), and production per cow ticked up, resulting in an increase in milk production of 3.5%. Nationally, most states showed increases. California (+1.7%), Pennsylvania (+0.6%), Idaho (+8.2%), Texas (+6.0%), Vermont (+4.4%) and Wisconsin (+2.0%), showed gains, while New Mexico (-0.2%) showed a decline.
Feed and fuel costs have declined over the last year, but other input costs have risen, most notably labor. Milk prices have declined from the 2025 peak earlier in the year. 2026 prices are forecast to start off lower but increase over the course of the year. Income-over-feed cost calculations, such as the DMC margin, are projected to range from $10.87-12.07/cwt. in 2026, with the low point in February.
As milk prices have fallen, dairy farm earnings have been supported by lower feed costs and higher calf and cull-cow income.
A wet spring and dry weather from mid-season on led to reduced harvest and quality of hay and corn silage in many parts of the Northeast.

¹ Agri-Mark Price Forecast
² Upstate Niagara Price Forecast
³ USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE)

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