Navigating the 2025 Potato Market: What’s in store for the year ahead?

With reduced U.S. production, lower prices and trade implications, the potato industry might face several challenges in the year ahead. Farm Credit East recently hosted a webinar providing a review of 2024 potato production and industry insights for 2025. Following are the key takeaways from this webinar.

Decreased U.S. Production in 2024

In 2024, North American potato growers produced over 547 million hundredweight, a decrease of about 3.4% from 2023. The U.S. saw a reduction in production by 4.5%, while Canadian growers had a slight increase. U.S. average yields were down slightly compared to 2023 yields.

The European potato crop was significant, producing over 830 million hundredweight. This production increase is expected to impact the global french fry trade.

Looking at specific industry sectors, chip stock supplies were plentiful, with most supplies moving under contracts. The frozen processing sector saw an increase in exports of fry and other frozen products. Seed production was down slightly, but the quality was good. Table stock prices were generally lower in 2024 than the previous year.

2025 Industry Outlook

The 2025 outlook is uncertain, with factors such as reduced production, lower prices and potential weather impacts.

Supply

Seed quality is expected to be good with sufficient supplies for planting the 2025 crop despite 2024’s reduced production. The spring 2025 Florida crop has been set back due to freezing temperatures in January.

Price

Generally, open market potato prices continue to be below the cost of production, even with the 5% reduction in production from 2024. Frozen contract prices are also expected to be down in 2025. The global french fry trade is expected to continue expanding, but North American producers may face challenges from increased European production.

Tariffs

As with other industries, potential tariffs are creating trade concerns in 2025. Canadian growers have already shipped around 3.2 million hundredweight since the end of December, showing Canadian growers are taking advantage of the markets before any potential tariffs.

Input costs

As a result of tariff and trade disruptions, fertilizer prices are uncertain for this year’s crop. As it stands today, fertilizer prices are generally down anywhere from 3-to-13%, with nitrogen in the lower percentage, whereas phosphates are in the 10-to-13% range. Potassium component pricing is currently up by 1-to-2%.

The potential for tariffs creates a real wild card situation because a lot of the components for fertilizer that is used in the U.S. are generated in Canada, Russia or China. Potential tariffs could raise fertilizer prices over and above the norm. This uncertainty is creating a lot of challenges for growers who are looking to finalize contracts for the ’25 year. 

To dive deeper into the above topics, read the 2025 Potato Industry Outlook.