How Tariffs Will Impact Apple Trade in 2025

Apple growers have experienced increased productivity over the past several years, but the industry faces uncertainty around prices and tariffs in 2025.

Farm Credit East recently hosted a webinar with US Apple’s Chris Gerlach, providing an overview of the apple industry, specifically covering what’s ahead for apple trade. Following are the key takeaways from this webinar.

Industry Overview

2024 was a high production year with an estimated 289 million bushels of apples reported in the USDA’s production figures for the year.

Supply and demand

Looking at the U.S. apple supply, there was robust pre-December movement and a significant portion of apples from the previous season were sold. On the demand side, U.S. fresh apple consumption has been declining, with the latest data showing by about 16.5 pounds per person.

Price

Retail apple prices have seen fluctuations, with a significant fall in prices during the 2023-24 season, but there has since been slight recovery. Grower prices have also been volatile, with Honeycrisp prices recovering significantly so far this season. The cost of production has increased with a large portion of grower returns going toward labor.

The Impact of Tariffs   

The U.S. apple industry will be heavily impacted by tariffs, particularly with the significant trade imbalances in dried apples and apple juice. For example, China is a main source of U.S. apple juice imports, and the high tariffs associated with Chinese goods will likely have a significant impact on U.S. prices. The industry is facing both direct and indirect effects of tariffs, including increased prices for importers and potential loss of market share in retaliating markets.

Tariffs may require the U.S. to be more proactive in finding new sources to export apples moving forward. There are opportunities for the industry to increase exports to countries that are negotiating or capitulating on tariffs. At the time of the webinar (April 17, 2025), apples are exempt from tariffs between Canada and Mexico under the USMCA, but this could change depending on trade relations between the neighboring countries.

It is important to note that tariffs can change, and retaliation could occur at any time, making it challenging to predict the extent of the impact to American apple growers, processors, importers and the economy at large. In 2025, the industry will continue to monitor and adapt to changes in trade policies and market conditions.

To dive deeper into the above topics, review the webinar recording along with the presenter’s PowerPoint slides, or to read the 2025 Apple Outlook, click one of the links below.